Trend or AI born. Flowing Internet is a copy

Trend

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Becoming

Existence
is maintenance, keeping a yacht or a website afloat takes time and money.
Bits also degrade and require upgrades, such as new software upgrades. As we
move from fixed products to constant upgrades, we don’t notice the motion. The
internet is still becoming, it is still beginning. If we look 30 years from
now we will see the huge difference. All miraculous inventions are still not
here.  We have not invented things yet.

Cognifying

In
the past, people added electricity to existing manual products such as home
appliances (e.g. manual washer or meat grinder) . We can make things even smarter
by adding Artificial Intelligence.  New
use cases will become the norm, cognified health, sports, nursing. Many jobs
will be replaced by machines, maybe yours and mine as machines will be able
to execute our tasks faster and better and do tasks we never attempted before.
While AI will become smarter, it will not be able to displace or eliminate
humanity (based on the theory of singularity); it will rather be utilized to
assist humans. We will race with machines not against them. Google, Netflix,
Amazon, Facebook are the greatest examples of using vast amounts of data to
build and train their AI engines that help us find things faster and provide
assistance with purchases. Next startups will be AI oriented or AI born.

Flowing

Internet
is a copy machine, anything that is digitized can be shared for free. Now most
internet content is user-generated. People will look for real time accessibility,
findability, trustworthiness and authenticity of content (e.g. iTunes, Spotify).
Trust, brand, relationships are the assets that cannot be copied and this is
where the main value will be. We have already transitioned from “desktop” to
a “web” thinking and will now be transitioning to the flows and streams
organized in the cloud.

Screening

Screens
already surround us, this will grow in the future: a phone, a VR or a TV will
always be close for us to get access to any content or idea we want. Current web
technology with hyperlinking equips us to jump from one source to another. In
the future all sources will be interlinked further and we will be able to
jump from content to footnote and from footnote to another content (i.e. Wikipedia
on steroids). We will be able to generate a social graph of an idea, or a
timeline of a concept. The future screens will watch us and we will watch
them, the literature will be organized in networks for better tracking and
findability. Unlike paper based books, networked library is never static and
will continue evolving in the same way Wikipedia does.

Accessing

The
switch from “ownership that you purchase” to “access that you subscribe to”
overturns many conventions.  Ownership
is casual, fickle.  If something better
comes along, grab it.  A subscription,
on the other hand, gushes a never-ending stream of updates, issues and
versions that force a constant interaction between the producer and consumer.
Accessing instead of owning will become the norm and companies like Uber,
Airbnb, Netflix, Amazon will continue to grow since they provide easy access
to the materials people require.

Sharing

We
are born to share, we share our ideas, items and wealth; people even share
their lives on the social media. For many of the things we will use in the
upcoming world, short-term use will be the norm.  As more items are invented and manufactured
– as the total number of hours in the day to enjoy those remains fixed – we
spend less time per item. The key innovations in the next few years will be
built on our ability to share. We have not begun sharing yet, new innovations
will produce new value and new wealth, and new business models will be
created. Instead of money, the peer producers who create various products and
services online gain credit, status, reputation, enjoyment, satisfaction, and
experience. Companies of the future will need to figure out new ways of
monetizing this trend.

Filtering

We
receive lots of information every day and we need a better way to filter it
out and customize it to our needs. We need to pay attention to far more
sources in order to do our jobs, to learn, to parent, or even to be
entertained.  Our seemingly distracted
state and our endless flitting from one thing to another is not a sign of disaster,
but it is a necessary adaptation to this current environment.  “A wealth of information creates a poverty
of attention” (Herbert A. Simon, n.d.). We want to be treated personally not
as a generic number, and anywhere we want personalization, filtering will
follow”. While the prices of items go down, the price of human experience
continues to rise. Entertainment, restaurants, personal coaches, babysitters,
weddings – all are increasing annually in cost. In the future, the only jobs
we will have will involve experiences.

Remixing

Modern
technologies are combinations of earlier primitive technologies that have
been rearranged and remixed. Most of what we experience today has been
recombined and re-experienced in new ways. In the future the number of media
choices will only increase. Remixing is fundamental element of creating
wealth. Every creation that has any value will eventually be transformed – in
some version – into something different. The more powerful the invention or
creation, the more likely and more important it is that it will be
transformed by others. In 30 years the most important cultural works and the
most powerful mediums will be those that have been remixed the most. We could
see this trend now: remakes of classic movies to suit new audiences,
integration of classic music, pop or rock songs in new melodies. Immersive
environments and virtual realities (such as games) will inevitably be able to
scroll back to earlier states. In fact, anything digital will have undo and
rewindability as well as remixing. Going forward, we are likely to get
impatient with experiences that don’t have undo buttons. This “redo” function
encourages creativity.

Interacting 

The
emphasis on experiences (as alluded to in the Filtering section) is the new
value in the world”. If something does not interact with us it’s broken, we
want VR that will interact with us, internet of information moving to
internet of experiences. In the future, everything will be immersive. Virtual
reality is a fake world that feels authentic – even hyperreal. Our primitive
mind thinks we’re 30 meters above the floor. But VR’s enduring benefits
spring from its interactivity. The best VR triggers a deep engagement with
other people. We will have the sense of being where we have not been (e.g. another
planet, country, museum).

Tracking

If
today’s social media has taught us anything about ourselves as a species, it
is that the human impulse to share overwhelms the human impulse for
privacy.   Vanity trumps privacy. By
2020, we will manufacture 54 billion sensors every year. We will track not
just ourselves and each other, we will track every object. Anything can be
tracked and will be tracked, companies and government will track us. We will
track people who track us, tracking will help personalization of experience. We’ll
measure a thousand different aspects of ourselves to create personal
treatments and medicines (even in-home personal pharmacy). Digital eyes and
ears can record every second of our entire day. We’ll record everything we
do, all the time, for our entire lives, with total recall. The AI in research
labs is already powerful enough to sift through billions of records and
surface important, meaningful patterns. This trend very much reminded me of
the specific episode of the “Black Mirror” series (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Entire_History_of_You)

Questioning

We are moving
from a world where answers are free to the world where good questions become
the main value. From this new societal organization, new behaviors emerge
that were impossible at the lower level. Most of what “everybody knows” about
human beings has so far been based on the human individual.  But there
may be a million different ways to connect several billion people, and each
way will reveal something new about us.  Or each way may create
something new. The improbable is the new normal. Robots cannot come up with
good questions, crafting good questions will be a skill reserved for humans.

Beginning

In
the future, everything will be one, very large thing. This is the time when
people of this planet linked themselves together on a planetary scale. Look
at a satellite photograph of the earth at night. This embryonic very large
thing has been running continuously for at least three decades. What will it
create in the next 30 years?future people will envy us,wishing they could
have witnessed the birth we saw. We are at the beginning of the beginning.”
We don’t have the internet yet, we are making things that will grow into a
huge scale, experiences, products, most important thing has not begun yet.