Trend Details Becoming Existence is maintenance, keeping a yacht or a website afloat takes time and money.
Bits also degrade and require upgrades, such as new software upgrades. As we move from fixed products to constant upgrades, we don’t notice the motion. The internet is still becoming, it is still beginning. If we look 30 years from now we will see the huge difference.
All miraculous inventions are still not here. We have not invented things yet. Cognifying In the past, people added electricity to existing manual products such as home appliances (e.g. manual washer or meat grinder) .
We can make things even smarter by adding Artificial Intelligence. New use cases will become the norm, cognified health, sports, nursing. Many jobs will be replaced by machines, maybe yours and mine as machines will be able to execute our tasks faster and better and do tasks we never attempted before.
While AI will become smarter, it will not be able to displace or eliminate humanity (based on the theory of singularity); it will rather be utilized to assist humans. We will race with machines not against them. Google, Netflix, Amazon, Facebook are the greatest examples of using vast amounts of data to build and train their AI engines that help us find things faster and provide assistance with purchases. Next startups will be AI oriented or AI born. Flowing Internet is a copy machine, anything that is digitized can be shared for free. Now most internet content is user-generated. People will look for real time accessibility, findability, trustworthiness and authenticity of content (e.
g. iTunes, Spotify). Trust, brand, relationships are the assets that cannot be copied and this is where the main value will be. We have already transitioned from “desktop” to a “web” thinking and will now be transitioning to the flows and streams organized in the cloud. Screening Screens already surround us, this will grow in the future: a phone, a VR or a TV will always be close for us to get access to any content or idea we want.
Current web technology with hyperlinking equips us to jump from one source to another. In the future all sources will be interlinked further and we will be able to jump from content to footnote and from footnote to another content (i.e. Wikipedia on steroids).
We will be able to generate a social graph of an idea, or a timeline of a concept. The future screens will watch us and we will watch them, the literature will be organized in networks for better tracking and findability. Unlike paper based books, networked library is never static and will continue evolving in the same way Wikipedia does. Accessing The switch from “ownership that you purchase” to “access that you subscribe to” overturns many conventions. Ownership is casual, fickle. If something better comes along, grab it. A subscription, on the other hand, gushes a never-ending stream of updates, issues and versions that force a constant interaction between the producer and consumer.
Accessing instead of owning will become the norm and companies like Uber, Airbnb, Netflix, Amazon will continue to grow since they provide easy access to the materials people require. Sharing We are born to share, we share our ideas, items and wealth; people even share their lives on the social media. For many of the things we will use in the upcoming world, short-term use will be the norm. As more items are invented and manufactured – as the total number of hours in the day to enjoy those remains fixed – we spend less time per item. The key innovations in the next few years will be built on our ability to share. We have not begun sharing yet, new innovations will produce new value and new wealth, and new business models will be created.
Instead of money, the peer producers who create various products and services online gain credit, status, reputation, enjoyment, satisfaction, and experience. Companies of the future will need to figure out new ways of monetizing this trend. Filtering We receive lots of information every day and we need a better way to filter it out and customize it to our needs. We need to pay attention to far more sources in order to do our jobs, to learn, to parent, or even to be entertained. Our seemingly distracted state and our endless flitting from one thing to another is not a sign of disaster, but it is a necessary adaptation to this current environment. “A wealth of information creates a poverty of attention” (Herbert A.
Simon, n.d.). We want to be treated personally not as a generic number, and anywhere we want personalization, filtering will follow”.
While the prices of items go down, the price of human experience continues to rise. Entertainment, restaurants, personal coaches, babysitters, weddings – all are increasing annually in cost. In the future, the only jobs we will have will involve experiences. Remixing Modern technologies are combinations of earlier primitive technologies that have been rearranged and remixed.
Most of what we experience today has been recombined and re-experienced in new ways. In the future the number of media choices will only increase. Remixing is fundamental element of creating wealth. Every creation that has any value will eventually be transformed – in some version – into something different. The more powerful the invention or creation, the more likely and more important it is that it will be transformed by others. In 30 years the most important cultural works and the most powerful mediums will be those that have been remixed the most. We could see this trend now: remakes of classic movies to suit new audiences, integration of classic music, pop or rock songs in new melodies.
Immersive environments and virtual realities (such as games) will inevitably be able to scroll back to earlier states. In fact, anything digital will have undo and rewindability as well as remixing. Going forward, we are likely to get impatient with experiences that don’t have undo buttons. This “redo” function encourages creativity. Interacting The emphasis on experiences (as alluded to in the Filtering section) is the new value in the world”. If something does not interact with us it’s broken, we want VR that will interact with us, internet of information moving to internet of experiences. In the future, everything will be immersive.
Virtual reality is a fake world that feels authentic – even hyperreal. Our primitive mind thinks we’re 30 meters above the floor. But VR’s enduring benefits spring from its interactivity. The best VR triggers a deep engagement with other people.
We will have the sense of being where we have not been (e.g. another planet, country, museum). Tracking If today’s social media has taught us anything about ourselves as a species, it is that the human impulse to share overwhelms the human impulse for privacy. Vanity trumps privacy. By 2020, we will manufacture 54 billion sensors every year.
We will track not just ourselves and each other, we will track every object. Anything can be tracked and will be tracked, companies and government will track us. We will track people who track us, tracking will help personalization of experience. We’ll measure a thousand different aspects of ourselves to create personal treatments and medicines (even in-home personal pharmacy).
Digital eyes and ears can record every second of our entire day. We’ll record everything we do, all the time, for our entire lives, with total recall. The AI in research labs is already powerful enough to sift through billions of records and surface important, meaningful patterns. This trend very much reminded me of the specific episode of the “Black Mirror” series (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Entire_History_of_You) Questioning We are moving from a world where answers are free to the world where good questions become the main value. From this new societal organization, new behaviors emerge that were impossible at the lower level. Most of what “everybody knows” about human beings has so far been based on the human individual.
But there may be a million different ways to connect several billion people, and each way will reveal something new about us. Or each way may create something new. The improbable is the new normal. Robots cannot come up with good questions, crafting good questions will be a skill reserved for humans. Beginning In the future, everything will be one, very large thing. This is the time when people of this planet linked themselves together on a planetary scale. Look at a satellite photograph of the earth at night.
This embryonic very large thing has been running continuously for at least three decades. What will it create in the next 30 years?future people will envy us,wishing they could have witnessed the birth we saw. We are at the beginning of the beginning.” We don’t have the internet yet, we are making things that will grow into a huge scale, experiences, products, most important thing has not begun yet.