Introduction: Is it possible to make predictionsbased on mathematical models of the spread of infectious diseases? The aim ofthis mathematical investigation is to show that it is possible, by taking onedisease and setting up a model of it in order to check if the proposed solutionmakes sense. I started out with a general focus on themathematics behind the spread of infectious diseases, which previously havebeen investigated and have a general structure by which they function, the SIRmodel (which I will explain in the ‘Background Modeling’ part of the essay).
After encountering difficulties, when wanting to compare the spread of two differentdiseases, I knew I had to change my research question to something morerealistic, which has not been conducted yet. I changed my research question tothe following: “Would the Zobrist-created vector plague virus be able to solvethe problem of overpopulation?”The idea for my research questioncomes from Dan Brown’s novel Inferno, (which is one of my favorite pieces)where a scientist called Zobrist, created a vector virus of plague with theability to sterilize a part of the population, in order to solve the problem ofoverpopulation, with which he was very concerned. The disease is imaginary, however in the novelit is presented as an infectious disease, which meant that I could try to modelit as if it were a real infectious one. I considered modeling a real disease,however that has been previously done, so through the addition of a componentof literature to math and biology, I added an element of uniqueness. During the course of my exploration,as I was learning about the SIR model, previous models of diseases, andevaluating different mathematical approaches to the problem, I found a publishedwork on a mathematical modeling of a zombie epidemic. This work took aninfection and modeled various situations that could occur, depending on whichway the infection develops. After finding it, I had a much clearer plan of howI needed to structure my personal investigation in order to be able to answerthe research question. I came to an understanding that in order to decidewhether an imaginary disease would be successful in eradicating a problem ofoverpopulation, one would need to split the big problem up into smallercomponents: present it in various situations that the epidemic could possiblydevelop into.
Therefore I separated the big question into smaller parts-specific models; and made that my final structure, inspired by the work onzombies. My new plan was creating individual models, and evaluating each one,in order to evaluate the success of the proposed solution. However, the work onZombies had no particular research question, implying that in the end whileit’s final goal was to compare the models between each other, my work’s finalaim was to pursue various possible models, evaluate each one with noconsideration or link to the other ones, and then decide, whether the proposedsolution would be a successful one or not. As a careful addition, I made sureto make my work more personal and unique, by changing parameters, so that evenif some calculations would overlap (as in math there is a common foundation),the final things represented would have nothing in common. As this essay will be dealing with an outbreakof plague with an activation to change DNA to cause sterility to the population,in order to solve overpopulation, it is important to understand the problemitself. Overpopulation is an undesirable condition where the existing human populationis greater than then amount Earth can physically handle. It is caused byfactors such as diminished death rate, better restorative offices, andconsumption of valuable assets.